Hurricane Milton continues shocking intensification. Winds up to 180 mph. Florida impacts (2024)

NHC reports winds hit 180 mph Monday, making Milton very strong Category 5 storm

In a hurry? Here'swhat's happening with Hurricane Milton in less than a minute.

Hurricane Milton strengthened over the Gulf of Mexico as it takes aim at Florida.

Milton is a Category 5 hurricane with 180-mph winds, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Here's how fast Milton has been strengthening all day Monday:

• 7 a.m., 120-mph winds.
• 8 a.m., 125-mph winds
• 9:05 a.m.: 150-mph winds
• 11 a.m.: 155-mph winds
• 12 p.m.: 160-mph winds
• 2 p.m.: 175-mph winds
• 5 p.m.: 180-mph winds

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton

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NHC forecasters at 11 a.m. predicted Milton's sustained winds would hit 165 mph within the next 12 hours. Less than 3 hours later, winds hit 175 mph and 180 mph by 5 p.m. Forecasts have been changing all day Monday as Milton undergoes rapid intensification. A Category 5 hurricane has sustained winds of at least 157 mph.

Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and very warm waters providing a conducive environment, according to the NHC's 5 p.m. forecast.

Several areas in Florida are currently under hurricane, storm surge or tropical storm watches. Expect more to be issued. Devastating impacts are forecast for Florida, from life-threatening storm surge, flooding rain and damaging winds.

A state of emergency has been declared in Florida for 51 out of 67 counties ahead of Milton, which is taking aim at the western coast of the state. Milton is expected to make landfall Wednesday. Several counties have announced schools will be closed.

"Despite uncertainty about exactly how Milton plays out, there is high confidence thatdestructive surge is comingto Southwest Florida on Wednesday, with the potential for the worst surge in more than 100 years in the Tampa Bay area," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

➤ Live updates: Get the latest news around Florida as Hurricane Milton approaches

➤ Hurricane Milton may bring worst surge in a century to Tampa, Southwest Florida

What impacts are expected in Florida from Hurricane Milton?

Impacts expected include a "devastating storm surge to major flooding from rain, damaging wind gusts, pounding surf and tornadoes," according to AccuWeather.

Approximately 90% of all deaths in hurricanes worldwide are caused by drowning in either the storm surges or flooding caused by intense rainfall, according to the Florida Climate Center.

"Milton has the potential to become one of Florida's most damaging and costly hurricanes, bringing a variety of life-threatening dangers," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

"This includes an extreme storm surge of 10-15 feet along and near the coast, including in the Tampa Bay area, destructive winds and major flooding to one of the most densely populated areas of Florida, the I-4 corridor from Tampa toOrlando.

"Milton may be a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians," said Porter.

Where will Hurricane Milton make landfall? North or south of Tampa, Florida, makes huge difference on storm surge threat

The National Hurricane Center said models are in disagreement on where Milton will make landfall. The official NHC track forecast at 11 a.m. shifted landfall farther north on Florida's West Coast. but there are some models showing a more southerly track.

AccuWeather is predicting landfall as a Category 3 storm around Longboat Key, north of Sarasota, around 8 p.m. Wednesday, said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in a telephone interview early Monday afternoon.

"It'll stay a Category 5 storm until Tuesday morning and then undergoes an eye wall replacement, which is normal with powerful hurricanes, that will temporarily reduce winds but will increase the size. It'll probably intensify again, but that's hard to predict," DaSilva said.

➤ What is storm surge and why is it so dangerous?

Even if Milton makes landfall as a Category 3 storm, don't expect the storm surge impact to lessen, DaSilva said.

"As a Category 5 now, it's generating a lot of energy. It'll still have the surge power of a Category 4 storm, even if it makes landfall as a Category 3 storm. We saw this with Katrina, and it's one thing we're concerned about."

At this time, the worst storm surge is expected in the Bradenton and Sarasota, area, where it could reach a historic 15-20 feet, according to AccuWeather.

A storm surge of 10 to 15 feet is expected between Tampa and Fort Myers. If landfall is just north of Sarasota, storm surge could be 15 to 20 feet, DaSilva said.

"A landfall north of Tampa will push water into Tampa Bay in a worst-case scenario."

If landfall is south of Tampa, storm surge in Tampa Bay could be dangerous but not as extreme, AccuWeather said.

Adding to the area's problems: devastation from the storm surge from Hurricane Helene.

"When this storm (Milton) comes, there will be less natural protection," DaSilva said.

Florida's East Coast also could see storm surge from Milton. "Three to 6 feet is likely over a much larger stretch of the west coast from aroundNaplesnorth toCedar Keyand a portion of the Atlantic coast from nearCape CanaveraltoSaint Augustine," AccuWeather said.

Hurricane Milton: What you need to know

• Location: 650 miles southwest of Tampa
• Maximum sustained winds: 180 mph
• Movement: east at 10 mph
• Pressure: 905 mb

At 8 p.m. EDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 90.4 West.

Milton is moving toward the east near 10 mph.

This general motion is expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east- northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph with higher gusts.

➤ WeatherTiger: Milton may bring worst surge in a century to Tampa, Southwest Florida

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton

Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.

Watches, warnings issued across Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton

Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threatened by Hurricane Milton:

Hurricane warning:

• Celestun to Rio Lagartos
• Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane watch:

• Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
• Campeche to south of Celestun
• Dry Tortugas
• Lake Okeechobee
• Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
• Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event

Storm surge warning:

• West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

Storm surge watch:

• Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm warning:

• Rio Lagartos to Cancun
• Campeche to south of Celestun
• All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
• Lake Okeechobee
• Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
• Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm watch:

• East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo
• Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph arepossiblewithin the specified area within 48 hours in association with atropical,subtropical, orpost-tropicalcyclone.

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Milton

Special note about spaghetti models:Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

➤ Track Hurricane Milton

Excessive rainfall forecast

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Milton

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.
2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so.
3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 4. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Hurricane tracker: See the latest on projected path for Hurricane Milton

Current forecast: Where is Hurricane Milton going and how strong could it get?

• As of 5 p.m. EDT: 180 mph
• 12 hours: 185 mph
• 24 hours: 175 mph
• 36 hours: 160 mph
• 48 hours: 145 mph
• 60 hours: 125 mph (inland)
• 72 hours: 85 mph (over water)
• 96 hours: 65 mph (post-tropical/extra-tropical)
• 120 hours: 50 mph (post-tropical/extra-tropical)

What impact could Hurricane Milton have and what areas could be affected?

"Milton has the potential to become one of Florida's most damaging and costly hurricanes, bringing a variety of life-threatening dangers," warned Porter. "This includes an extreme storm surge of 10-15 feet along and near the coast, including in the Tampa Bay area, destructive winds and major flooding to one of the most densely populated areas of Florida, the I-4 corridor from Tampa toOrlando."

"The storm is expected to bring several inches of rainfall to the Sunshine State, with a large area of 8-12 inches forecast through central and northeastern Florida, including the Tampa-St. Petersburgarea,OrlandoandJacksonville. The AccuWeather Local StormMax for rainfall is an incredible 30 inches.

"Strong, damaging winds well in excess of 100 mph, up to the AccuWeather Local StormMax of 165 mph."

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

• Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…10-15 ft
• Tampa Bay…10-15 ft
• Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…6-10 ft
• Charlotte Harbor…6-10 ft
• Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
• Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
• Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft
• Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL…3-5 ft
• Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA…3-5 ft
• Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL…2-4 ft
• Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC…2-4 ft
• Dry Tortugas…2-4 ft
• St. Johns River…2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

➤ Excessive rainfall forecast

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

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(This story was updated to add new information and to add a video.)